Accession Number : AD1029915

Title :   Managing the Public Sector Research and Development Portfolio Selection Process: A Case Study of Quantitative Selection and Optimization

Descriptive Note : Technical Report


Personal Author(s) : Schwartz,Jason A

Full Text :

Report Date : 01 Sep 2016

Pagination or Media Count : 55

Abstract : This thesis presents a detailed process and model describing how public sector organizations can implement a research and development (R and D) portfolio optimization strategy to maximize the cost-adjusted benefit metric of a portfolio while simultaneously seeking to maintain and improve a national strategic technologic advantage. The model is applied to an R and D dataset from the FY 17 Naval Research Program (NRP) at the Naval Postgraduate School. The process presented follows a framework incorporating proposal filtering for initial selectivity, proposal weighting based on defined criteria and alignment with the organizations mission and purpose, proposal value and risk determinations, and concludes with portfolio optimization. The optimizations objective function sought to maximize the sum of a portfolios cost-adjusted benefit calculation, subject to remaining within the NRPs research and development budget. The model effectively resulted in predominantly selecting proposals with medium, high and very high probabilities of success in the risk category and valuations predominantly in the medium, high and very high range. The completion of this thesis has provided a new perspective on R and D selection strategies for public sector investment and highlighted the challenges of placing a value on a public sector R and D proposal.

Descriptors :   risk management , optimization , investments , military research , case studies , business administration

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE