Accession Number : AD1020125


Title :   Venezuela and Chavez: What the Future Holds...


Descriptive Note : Technical Report


Corporate Author : AIR COMMAND AND STAFF COLLEGE, AIR UNIVERSITY MAXWELL AIR FORCE BASE United States


Personal Author(s) : Poole,John M


Full Text : https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/1020125.pdf


Report Date : 01 Apr 2010


Pagination or Media Count : 45


Abstract : The next 10 years will bring many challenges and opportunities for the United States and its involvement with the Chavez government of Venezuela. The question on how should the United States prepare its interaction with an increasingly hostile Venezuelan government can be better answered through the use of scenario-planning methodology, a process of five phases: Orient, Explore, Synthesize, Act, and Monitor. With Chavez and Venezuela, the scenario-based methodology process begins by identifying potential changes in events or forces between the US and Venezuela. These events or forces are combined in different ways to create a set of four stories about how the future could unfold. With the creation of these four stories, implications are derived, adding depth of each scenario. At the end, indicators are developed for monitoring events that could unfold, providing insight to potentially predicted outcomes. In order to ensure national and regional security policy success in the Western Hemisphere, the United States' government must always consider national security strategies for potential future interaction with the Chavez government of Venezuela.


Descriptors :   government (foreign) , foreign policy , history , scenarios , planning , strategy , united states government , interactions , national security , international relations


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE