Accession Number : AD1015988


Title :   The Fallacy of Quantifying Risk


Descriptive Note : Journal Article


Corporate Author : DEFENSE ACQUISITION UNIV FT BELVOIR VA FT BELVOIR United States


Personal Author(s) : Frick,David E


Full Text : https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/1015988.pdf


Report Date : 01 Sep 2012


Pagination or Media Count : 4


Abstract : Nearly every article you see in industry and within the DoD literature on the topic of risk management demonstrates, advocates, or aggrandizes the attempt to quantify risk. One might think that if risk management was truly a science and uncertainty could be systematically quantified in some manner, then the maturity of the profession of project or program management, as measured by the number of projects or programs that meet cost, schedule, and performance goals, would increase over time. Alas, the profession is not able to make this claim.


Descriptors :   risk management , military acquisition , uncertainty , risk theory , threats , bias , risk analysis


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE