Accession Number : AD1008781

Title :   Sparse Event Modeling with Hierarchical Bayesian Kernel Methods

Descriptive Note : Technical Report,23 Aug 2014,22 May 2015

Corporate Author : University of Oklahoma Norman, United States

Personal Author(s) : Barker,Kash

Full Text :

Report Date : 05 Jan 2016

Pagination or Media Count : 23

Abstract : The research objective of this proposal was to develop a predictive Bayesian kernel approach to model count data based on several predictive variables. Such an approach, which we refer to as the Poisson Bayesian kernel model, is able to model the rate of occurrence of events (and subsequently, their likelihood of occurrence) based on historical evidence of the counts of previous event occurrences. The novel Bayesian kernel methods made use of: (i) the Bayesian property of improving predictive accuracy as data are dynamically obtained, and (ii) the kernel function which adds specificity to the model and can make nonlinear data more manageable. Early results show that the Poisson Bayesian kernel model is more effective than the Poisson generalized linear model at modeling rates of occurrence especially for small datasets where regression-based methods often fail. The ability to model sparse data sets represents a positive step in modeling low-likelihood events often encountered in risk analysis.

Descriptors :   BAYES THEOREM , COUNTING METHODS , risk analysis

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE