Accession Number : AD1005455


Title :   Bayesian Inference of Nonstationary Precipitation Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Infrastructure Design


Descriptive Note : Technical Report


Corporate Author : Army Engineer Research and Development Center Vicksburg United States


Personal Author(s) : Skahill,Brian E ; AghaKouchak,Amir ; Cheng,Linyin ; Byrd,Aaron ; Kanney,Joseph


Full Text : https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/1005455.pdf


Report Date : 01 Mar 2016


Pagination or Media Count : 20


Abstract : The purpose of this document is to demonstrate the application of Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation as a formal probabilistic-based means by which to develop local precipitation Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves using historical rainfall time series data collected for a given surface network station, including the treatment of a nonstationary climate condition. This objective will be accomplished by independently revisiting parts of an example originally profiled by Cheng and AghaKouchak (2014). This Technical Note will conclude with a brief discussion of some potential opportunities for future U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) research and development directed at extreme rainfall frequency analysis.


Descriptors :   MARKOV CHAINS , BAYESIAN INFERENCE , RAINFALL INTENSITY


Subject Categories : Statistics and Probability
      Meteorology


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE