Accession Number : AD0712457


Title :   A METHODOLOGY FOR COST FACTOR COMPARISON AND PREDICTION


Corporate Author : RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CA


Personal Author(s) : Harman, Alvin J ; Henrichsen, Susan


Full Text : https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/712457.pdf


Report Date : Aug 1970


Pagination or Media Count : 81


Abstract : An improved technique is reported for analyzing the cost experience of weapon system procurements. Unlike earlier analyses, this one accounts for performance requirements, program duration, degree of technological advance, level of effort, earliness of estimates, and subsequent program changes, as well as the more usual ratio of estimated to actual costs (cost factors). Fifteen weapons for which enough information was available were analyzed and the results were compared with 1950s aircraft and missile experience. Based on an assessment of the technological advance and length of time for development of a future system, the actual cost and range of uncertainty can be predicted using this mode.


Descriptors :   *AIR FORCE PROCUREMENT , *COST EFFECTIVENESS , AIRCRAFT , CONTRACTS , COSTS , GUIDED MISSILES , MANAGEMENT PLANNING AND CONTROL , MATHEMATICAL MODELS , MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION , STATISTICAL ANALYSIS , WEAPON SYSTEMS


Subject Categories : Economics and Cost Analysis


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE