Accession Number : AD0426946


Title :   AN EXAMINATION OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF HURRICANE FORECAST ERRORS USING PROBABILITY ELLIPSES.


Corporate Author : NAVAL AIR STATION NORFOLK VA


Report Date : Oct 1963


Pagination or Media Count : 29


Abstract : The fact that tropical cyclones move in erratic, apparently unpredictable paths has been recog nized by navigators and meteorologists for over half a century. The advent of the international ship reporting system late in the 19th century and aircraft reconnaissance during World War II have created advancements in the tracking of these storms; concurrently, improvements have been made in forecasting storm movement. No presently known technique, however, yield the consistent desired degree of accuracy. Research currently being conducted indicates that the problem of forecasting storm movement is so com plex that it may require many years of research and large expenditures before 'pin point' accu racy may be expected in the forecasts. It must, then, be anticipated that the official warnings will contain errors. Records of forecast errors provide a source of information from which the nature of the expected forecast errors may be deduced in order that fleet commanders may better ''live'' with the errors made. (Author)


Descriptors :   *TROPICAL CYCLONES , ELLIPSOIDS , STORMS


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE